Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $483,133$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{476,110.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 98.2)}}\) (asimptote \(476,110.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $21,276$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(759 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,653.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 130.8)}}\) (asimptote \(35,653.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $137,837$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $375,044$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.37 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{365,351.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 96.3)}}\) (asimptote \(365,351.1\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,139$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(367 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,513.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 98.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,513.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,563$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,057,470$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(8.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,792,917.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 118.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,792,917.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $101,752$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(6.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{110,331.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 96.4)}}\) (asimptote \(110,331.7\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $564,888$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $94,701$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,292.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 103.9)}}\) (asimptote \(113,292.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,932$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(828 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,631.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 73.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,631.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,161$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $91,635$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,895.0}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 126.0)}}\) (asimptote \(124,895.0\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,712$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(58.2 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,085.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 124.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,085.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $57,100$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $397,623$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,224,238.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 165.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,224,238.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,154$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(109 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,938.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 145.7)}}\) (asimptote \(31,938.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $162,985$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $253,868$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{573,576.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 153.3)}}\) (asimptote \(573,576.0\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,764$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(60.1 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $140,862$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,489$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(4.57 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,398.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 159.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,398.7\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(0.716 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 97.1)}}\) (asimptote \(31.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $785$ on 2020-08-10
